CASE FILE
A storm, as the pavement model saw it.
Every case file replays a finished storm through the road's own thermometer: the pavecast surface state and road temperature at every network mile, archived hour by hour while the storm ran.
Replayed below exactly as the pavement model saw it — every hour, every mile, untreated pavement. No hindsight edits.
The replay bins have not been published yet — check back shortly, or head to the Map Room for the live pavement layers.
The Replay
Surface state · Hour by hourPavement · untreated
Analysis is the model run closest to each hour — its best statement of what the road was. 24 h ahead is what the model had said a full day earlier, replayed against the same clock: the honest test of whether you could have planned on it. Hover any mile for the route, its surface state and the road temperature there.
When Each Road Flipped
Worst state on the route · Every hourOne strip per major corridor: the worst surface state anywhere on the route inside the case region, hour by hour, with the flip times that matter — the first sustained snow (three straight hours) and the first ice. Computed live from the replay bins for whichever lead is selected above, so flipping to “24 h ahead” shows how the forecast timed the same transitions.
The Honesty Panel
Model vs road sensors, this storm
These are state-DOT RWIS pavement sensors — thermometers in the road itself — scored over the storm window only. Bias and RMSE are road-temperature errors; the transition columns compare when each sensor first read a frozen road against when the model first called one there. The rolling, every-day version of this table lives on the Scorecard.
What Fell On Each Road
Storm-total snowfallStorm-total snowfall along each corridor — the weather the pavement model was working under. Snowfall totals are analysis, not our model; the pavement replay above is what we add to them.
Keep Driving
The same storm, other desksThe Snowfall Verdict
Forecast Flakes scored this same storm as snowfall — NBM forecasts against NOHRSC ground truth, town by town. Two desks, one storm, both graded in public.
The Map Room
Today's pavement, live: the whole Interstate system tinted by the current pavecast run, with MRMS radar underneath. The same engine this replay runs on.
The Scorecard
Our errors, in public, every day — the pavement model verified against RWIS road sensors, win or lose. Case files are the storm-sized chapters of that ledger.